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More than a month ago I wrote a post about trusting software and what it tells you. I ended the post on a tangent about and if I was going to trust it with its prediction.

I have been keeping track of the prices listed for a flight from San Francisco, CA to Newark, NJ and their confidence value since then. You can check out my graphs below, Blue == Confidence, Orange == Price. You can click here to view the price graph on their site, but they do not show their past confidence levels.


Well it looks like distrust (untrustingness? disgustingness?) seems to have paid off. On 4/9 the price was $348 and a confidence of 80%+, and as of today the price is $443 with a confidence of 58%.  A $100 price increase in a month, and all the time their confidence is pretty high telling you that the price will be dropping.

On 4/22 I bought my tickets, for $373.80 after taxes and fees. I did not use Farecast to buy the tickets, I used Priceline, and I am happy with decision to buy then. I will continue to follow the standard advice: buy plane tickets as early as possible for the cheapest tickets. Hope this information helps some people out there.


Posted on Thursday, May 24, 2007 10:23 PM tech , web2.0 | Back to top

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